FINANCE

China’s January Social Financing Tops Forecasts, Bank Loans Lag

Published: Feb. 14, 2026 1:27 a.m. GMT+8

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The People's Bank of China. Photo: VCG

China’s aggregate financing beat expectations in January, propped up by front-loaded government borrowing, while new bank loans fell short of forecasts in a sign of weak credit demand from the private sector.

New yuan loans stood at 4.7 trillion yuan ($675 billion) in January, down 420 billion yuan from the same period last year, according to data released by the People’s Bank of China on Friday. The figure missed the 5.1 trillion yuan average forecast from a Caixin survey of 12 economists.

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China’s new yuan loans in January were 4.7 trillion yuan, below forecasts and down 420 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak private sector demand.
Total social financing (TSF) beat expectations, rising to 7.22 trillion yuan, mainly due to increased government borrowing.
M2 money supply grew 9% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts, while household loans modestly recovered after three months of contraction.

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Who’s Who

Changjiang Securities: Wu Ge, chief economist at Changjiang Securities, anticipated weak credit issuance before the release of China's January aggregate financing data. He specifically noted that a slower-than-usual rise in bill financing rates pointed to this weakness, suggesting that bond issuance would likely continue to substitute for loans.

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