Interview: Graham Allison Sees ‘Mutual Deterrence’ Stabilizing China-U.S. Relations

1. Graham Allison, renowned for introducing the “Thucydides Trap” concept, warned during the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting that the stability of the international security order, which has governed the world for decades, is now more vulnerable than ever before. He emphasized its fragility, noting that the existing order is an exceptional achievement that relied on continuous effort by both Democratic and Republican administrations in the U.S. over nearly 80 years. Allison set the stage for his talk by asking the audience to consider three key numbers—80, 80, and 9—explaining that understanding the questions relating to these numbers provides insight into the state of global security today. [para. 1][para. 2][para. 4][para. 5][para. 6]

2. The first “80” refers to the 80 years without a great power war since World War II, the longest such period since the Roman Empire, but Allison cautioned that this peace is highly unnatural and potentially unsustainable. The second “80” highlights the eight decades since nuclear weapons were last used in warfare. He credited this period of non-use to the effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, extended deterrence, and robust alliance structures led by the U.S. and its partners. The final number, “9,” is the current count of nuclear-armed states. Allison pointed to the deliberate efforts after the Cuban Missile Crisis to prevent proliferation and maintained that this regime is now under significant threat. [para. 5][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]

3. Allison outlined the post–World War II international order, detailing how it was underpinned by economic institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and GATT, and security alliances like NATO and U.S. pacts with Japan and South Korea. He underscored that despite its longevity, this order’s future is precarious, with contemporary risks amplified by emerging geopolitical competitions. [para. 6][para. 7][para. 8]

4. In his remarks and writings, including his November 2025 Foreign Affairs article and his book “Destined for War,” Allison established that U.S.–China tensions exemplify the Thucydides Trap—a structural rivalry wherein a rising China challenges America’s dominance. He referenced the U.K.–Germany rivalry before World War I as a pertinent historical analogy, warning that unintentional escalation sparked by relatively minor incidents (like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand) could similarly ignite larger conflicts, especially with Taiwan as a likely flashpoint in the modern context. [para. 10][para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16]

5. Despite recent escalations such as steep tariffs and constraints on rare earth exports, Allison observed that the U.S. and China managed to reach a détente. Summits are scheduled between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump for 2026, raising hopes for a new partnership or at least rapprochement. Allison, while cautious, sees a slightly more favorable outlook for the relationship, acknowledging the many unpredictable variables at play. [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21]

6. In Davos, Allison reiterated that the U.S.–China relationship is characterized by deep structural challenges but noted a “silver lining:” both leaders recognize the unacceptable costs of war between nuclear-armed powers. He described the current dynamic as “mutual deterrence,” in which each side has the capacity to cause significant harm to the other, creating a stabilizing—if uneasy—environment. This reflects a new realism in U.S. policy toward China. Allison also countered criticisms of President Trump’s unpredictability by arguing that Trump only backs down when faced with a resolute and capable adversary. [para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29]

7. Taiwan remains the principal flashpoint in U.S.–China relations, with Allison stressing the need for multiple channels of communication to prevent miscalculation. He contrasted past diplomatic missteps with more recent, successfully managed interactions and urged further institutionalization of crisis communication mechanisms. Allison concluded that while Trump’s unpredictability poses risks, both he and Xi understand the stakes over Taiwan, increasing the likelihood of formalized diplomacy—including the potential for a fourth U.S.–China communiqué—should both sides demonstrate strategic creativity. [para. 30][para. 31][para. 32][para. 33][para. 34][para. 35][para. 36][para. 37][para. 38]