ECONOMY

Two Sessions: China’s 2026 Growth Target in Focus as Range Option Looms

Published: Mar. 3, 2026 5:58 p.m. GMT+8

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Global investors are watching whether China will shift to a growth target range for 2026 as the country prepares to convene its annual “Two Sessions.”

Premier Li Qiang is set to deliver the government work report at the opening of the top legislature’s annual meeting on March 5, setting this year’s key economic targets.

Economists are divided over whether Beijing will retain its “around 5%” goal — used from 2023 to 2025 — or adopt a 4.5% to 5% range.

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China may shift to a 4.5–5% growth target range for 2026, with some institutions expecting a range and others expecting the “around 5%” target to remain.
Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a headline deficit-to-GDP ratio around 4% and a broader ratio near 11.7%.
Boosting domestic demand, stabilizing the property market, resolving local government debt, and supporting emerging industries are policy focuses.

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Who’s Who

Nomura: Nomura, a Japanese financial services group, expects China to adopt a growth target range for 2026. They anticipate a 4% headline deficit ratio for China's fiscal policy, with a central government deficit of 5 trillion yuan. Nomura also projects significant government bond issuance not included in the headline deficit, including local government special-purpose bonds, ultra-long special sovereign bonds, and special sovereign bonds for capital replenishment.

Zheshang Securities: Zheshang Securities is one of the financial institutions that predict China will adopt a growth target range for 2026, specifically 4.5% to 5%. This aligns with Nomura and the China Macroeconomy Forum's expectations, suggesting a more flexible approach to economic targets.

Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley expects China's central government to maintain its "around 5%" growth target for 2026. This contrasts with other institutions that anticipate a shift to a range-based target, such as 4.5% to 5%. Morgan Stanley's view aligns with the idea that a stable target helps anchor market expectations.

China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co. Ltd.: China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co. Ltd. (CCXI) projects that the Chinese central government will maintain an "around 5%" growth target for 2026. CCXI believes this will help to stabilize market expectations.

Citic Securities: Citic Securities estimates that China's broader fiscal deficit ratio will be around 11.7%. This figure, while slightly lower than the previous year, is still considered elevated.

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