FINANCE

China Credit Growth Seen Slowing Amid Holiday, Weak Demand

Published: Mar. 13, 2026 4:53 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s credit growth likely slowed in February as the Lunar New Year holiday and subdued demand dampened lending activity.

New yuan loans are forecast to total 949.6 billion yuan ($138.2 billion), according to the average estimate from a Caixin survey of 13 institutions.

That would be slightly below the 1 trillion yuan recorded a year earlier and sharply down from January’s 4.7 trillion yuan. Lending typically surges at the start of the year.

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China's February credit growth likely slowed due to the Lunar New Year and weak demand, with new yuan loans forecast at 949.6 billion yuan, down from January’s 4.7 trillion.
Total social financing is expected at 1.9 trillion yuan, below last year’s 2.2 trillion; M2 money supply growth is projected to slow to 8.8% year-on-year.
Lending moderation is attributed to seasonal factors and soft economic momentum; analysts expect possible central bank rate cuts later in 2024.

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Who’s Who

BNP Paribas: BNP Paribas is mentioned in the article as the employer of economist He Shan. He Shan's analysis suggests that China's economic momentum has not significantly improved this year, leading to weak credit demand. He further anticipates that China's central bank may implement a 20 basis point cut in policy rates this year, possibly starting in mid-to-late March.

Citic Securities: Citic Securities' Chief Macro and Policy Analyst, Yang Fan, noted that February is typically a slow month for lending, a trend that was amplified this year by the Lunar New Year holiday. This contributes to the moderation in China's credit growth.

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