ECONOMY

China’s First-Quarter GDP Beats Forecasts, but Deflation, Jobs Weigh

Published: Apr. 16, 2026 12:39 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s economy grew faster than expected at the start of 2026, but persistent deflationary pressures and a softening labor market highlighted underlying fragility despite solid industrial output.

GDP expanded 5% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding the 4.8% average forecast in a Caixin survey. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth edged up to 1.3%, slightly faster than the previous quarter, official data showed Thursday.

China’s First-Quarter GDP Accelerates

The stronger headline figure offers some relief to investors tracking the world’s second-largest economy, but the recovery remains uneven.

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Explore the story in 30 seconds

China's Q1 2026 GDP grew 5% YoY, exceeding 4.8% Caixin forecast; 1.3% QoQ.
Industrial output rose 6.1% Q1, 5.7% March YoY, with high-tech strength.
GDP deflator negative for 12th quarter; urban unemployment 5.4% in March, highest since Feb 2025.

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