ECONOMY

China’s Q1 GDP Growth Seen Accelerating to 4.8%

Published: Apr. 13, 2026 5:04 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s economy is expected to have grown 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to a Caixin survey of economists, marking a modest pickup from the previous quarter.

The poll of 11 institutions showed forecasts ranging from 4.5% to 5.2%, with the average estimate 0.3 percentage points above the fourth-quarter pace.

The forecasts reflect support from exports and front-loaded fiscal policy, though domestic demand remains subdued.

China’s Q1 GDP Seen Accelerating

Analysts expect nominal GDP growth to outpace real growth, partly due to elevated energy prices, raising the possibility that the GDP deflator — a broad measure of price changes — could turn positive after 11 consecutive quarters in negative territory.

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China's Q1 GDP expected to grow 4.8% YoY, up 0.3pp from Q4, per Caixin survey of 11 institutions (4.5-5.2% range).
Supported by exports and fiscal policy; domestic demand subdued.
Nominal growth to outpace real due to elevated energy prices; consumption weak, exports to cool in March.

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