Caixin

China’s Provincial Growth Diverges as Big Provinces Lead

Published: Apr. 28, 2026  11:35 a.m.  GMT+8
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China’s provincial growth diverged in the first quarter, with larger economies generally posting stronger results while some regions slowed.

Fifteen of the Chinese mainland’s 31 provincial-level regions matched or exceeded the national year-on-year growth rate of 5%, according to Caixin calculations based on government data.

Xizang, a smaller economy, led at 6.1%, with economic hubs Shandong and Zhejiang close behind at 6%. Beijing, Gansu, Shanghai and Anhui also grew more than 5.5%, with the first three at 5.9% and Anhui at 5.8%.

China’s Provincial Growth Diverges

Provinces with more advanced industrial structures and stronger export momentum tended to perform better, while those reliant on heavy industry lagged.

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  • China's Q1 provincial GDP growth diverged; 15/31 regions met/exceeded national 5% YoY rate.
  • Leaders: Xizang (6.1%), Shandong/Zhejiang (6%), Beijing/Gansu/Shanghai (5.9%), Anhui (5.8%).
  • Advanced/export-oriented provinces outperformed; heavy industry regions like Hunan (3%), Liaoning (2.8%) lagged.
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