Charts of the Day: China’s Green Export Boom Clouded by Falling Solar Prices
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China’s exports of lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and electric vehicles (EVs) continued to grow in 2025.
Overseas shipments increased last year for all three of the green transition-related products, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, with solar cell exports growing at a rate of nearly 73%.
By value, however, there was a divergence among what Beijing has dubbed the “New Three,” — as opposed to the “old” trio of exports: clothing, furniture and home appliances. While the value of lithium-ion battery and passenger EV exports continued to rise in 2025, the value of solar cell exports dropped due to lower prices stemming from a supply glut.
In recent years, the structure of China’s goods trade has continued to improve, with the share of products containing new and green technologies gradually increasing, said Wang Jun, deputy head of the customs administration. Since 2020, China’s overseas trade of high-tech items has grown at an average annual rate of 7.9%, which accelerated to 11.4% last year.
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- China’s exports of lithium-ion batteries, solar cells, and EVs grew in 2025; solar cell exports rose nearly 73%.
- The value of solar cell exports fell due to lower prices, while lithium-ion battery and EV export values increased.
- China will end PV product export rebates on April 1, 2026, and begin phasing out battery rebates in 2027; Canadian and EU trade policies shifted, but US tariffs on Chinese EVs remain at 100%.
- Guotai Junan Futures Co. Ltd.
- Guotai Junan Futures Co. Ltd. analysts believe Chinese solar equipment manufacturers will likely expedite exports of PV modules before China eliminates value-added tax export rebates for these products on April 1. They foresee less impact on lithium-ion battery exports from this policy change, citing robust demand and higher-than-expected profits from power cells and energy storage batteries, particularly in Europe and the U.S.
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