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China’s Economic Growth Could Fall as Low as 5.7% in 2020: UBS

By Zhang Yu and Tang Ziyi / Nov 29, 2019 03:28 PM / Economy

Photo: VCG

Photo: VCG

China’s economic growth could slide to 5.7% next year as the world’s second-largest economy braces for uncertainties generated from the ongoing China-U.S. trade war, according to UBS Wealth Management.

Hu Yifan, regional chief investment officer and chief China economist at UBS, made the remarks Thursday at a press conference in Beijing. Hu said China and the U.S. are moving closer to a “phase one” trade agreement but the two sides are not likely to strike more ambitious “phase two” or “phase three” deals next year given their disagreements at recent talks.

A Bloomberg News survey of analysts returned median predictions that China’s GDP will expand by 6.1% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020.

Last year, the country’s economic growth dropped to 6.6% from 6.8% in 2017, marking the slowest annual expansion in 28 years, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The country’s GDP grew 6% year-on-year in the third quarter this year, marking the second straight quarterly deceleration and the smallest increase since 1992.

Read the full story on Caixin Global later today.

Contact reporter Tang Ziyi (

Related: China Revises 2018 GDP Upward, Citing Changes in Basic Data
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