Trade War Monitor, Jul. 14: China’s Exports Beat Expectations in June as 90-day Tariff Truce Deadline Nears

China’s exports exceeded forecasts in June 2024, a result attributed to Chinese exporters leveraging the ongoing 90-day tariff truce with the United States, set to expire in the following month. Both Beijing and Washington have signaled constructive dialogue and mutual goodwill in resolving bilateral trade tensions, indicating positive momentum in negotiations. The newsletter underscores its ongoing commitment to monitoring these economic developments for readers. [para. 1][para. 4]

On the diplomatic front, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that U.S. and Chinese officials plan to convene for another round of trade talks in early August 2024. Lutnick will be joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who will engage with Chinese counterparts to initiate broader trade conversations. Chinese commerce ministry spokesman He Yongqian confirmed that both countries are continuing close communication regarding economic and trade interests. Furthermore, the first in-person meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took place in Malaysia, in which potential cooperative avenues were explored. [para. 2][para. 5][para. 6]

Despite ongoing trade negotiations, U.S. President Donald Trump has maintained a confrontational stance by threatening tariffs against numerous global trading partners. Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, along with a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico and the European Union, both set to take effect on August 1, 2024. [para. 3]

China’s exports in June 2024 grew by 5.8% compared with the previous year, surpassing both May’s 4.8% growth and the consensus forecast of 4.2%. Imports also rose by 1.1%, reversing a 3.4% decline posted a month earlier. Notably, the drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. narrowed to 16% in June, suggestive of progress stemming from high-level trade talks, including the “London Framework” deal. Investors are monitoring whether these improvements in trade relations will result in a lasting truce. [para. 7][para. 8][para. 9]

A U.S. court ruled against Hesai Technology Co. Ltd.’s request to be removed from a Department of Defense list designating companies with alleged Chinese military links. The listing, which does not entail direct sanctions, can nonetheless damage corporate reputations. Other Chinese firms, such as Xiaomi Corp. and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc., successfully challenged their inclusion in previous years, but several remain listed. [para. 10][para. 11]

In the realm of digital technology, TikTok has refuted a Reuters report that it is developing a separate, U.S.-specific app that might lead to a sale to comply with U.S. law. TikTok called the article “factually inaccurate.” In April 2024, a law was enacted in the U.S. to ban TikTok unless its parent company, ByteDance, sold the app by January 19, 2025. After the deadline lapsed without a sale, TikTok was briefly removed from U.S. app stores, only to return after President Trump postponed enforcement of the ban upon taking office. [para. 12][para. 13][para. 14]

Additionally, Chinese surveillance-equipment giant Hikvision is contesting a Canadian government order requiring it to shut down operations within 120 days. Hikvision has sought a judicial review and secured agreement with Canada’s Attorney General to maintain normal operations pending a court decision on the review. [para. 15][para. 16][para. 17]