Jan 18, 2019 05:05 PM

Wang Tao: Moderate Property Market Slowdown Likely in 2019, but New Tariffs Aren’t

Photo: VCG
Photo: VCG

Our base case scenario for the U.S.-China trade war is that bilateral negotiations make enough progress for the two sides to continue to talk beyond March 1, tariffs do not go higher to 25% on March 1, but the threat of higher tariffs from the U.S. remains.

While there have been positive signs of progress in bilateral talks in recent weeks, we still think the chance of a “Grand Deal” is small given the big gaps between U.S. and Chinese positions on some core issues. We think the risk of further escalation is not negligible.

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